A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
